DAX has not had a significant (-10% or more) corrective move downwards in ~400 days. The mean bull cycle counted in days is about 400 days, that is we should expect a correction now or very soon.

On the weekly chart below, please also note that there have been cycles of up to 700 days of rally before we’d get into a corrective move down. That is, don’t use the market cycles (alone) as a shorting signal!



My primary scenario is, that we’re already in the 1st phase of a corrective move (or atleast very close to) and the weekly chart below illustrates “the plan” / price action guesstimate for the correction.

My secondary scenario is (no public chart available), that we’d make a double top (that turns into a triple top) during the next 20-30days and then correction down.

My third scenario is (no public chart available), that we correct down to 12 000 – 11 900 and then make higher highs.

The primary scenario is not valid if SPX 2360 is taken out by the bulls. Political stuff (French election,  mr. Trump & Co.) could and will likely add more volatility / uncertainty to the markets over the next N days.

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