SPY was a bit stronger last week than what I had expected. I though stick to plan A which is range trading this week, more or less within the pink box draw on the chart below.

There is not much resistance on the upside but below we have supports at 282 / 280 and 272 / 269.


DAX rebounded last week but the rebound was moderate and a tad weaker than expected. On the 4h chart below, MA20 is pointing north which is the only bullish thing in that chart.

Important support at 11880 and plenty of resistance on the upside 12130 / 12210 / 12420


Futures performance on a weekly basis

Futures performance year-to-date. US going like a train where the rest of the world is so so..


Futures technical indicators summary; short and long term timframe is strong where the mid term timeframe is weaker.


Last week, the more part of futures/indices were advancing.

SPY historical seasonality for week 38 has been bullish.

SPY has ended 12 times in green and 6 in red for week 38 historically

SPY has seen no major declines nor advances during week 38.

SPY median return for September has been bullish. Next month though not that strong. Last two months usually strongest of them all.


SPY market breadth is good, the more part of underlying stocks are rising on both weekly and monthly basis.

Also the summary of technical indicators for all instruments are in strong buy mode.


Deltas to moving averages for SPY. It is very likely that we get a SPY close below its 20 day moving average this week.

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