A short update regarding the short term. I write this with mixed feelings since there is not really a clear direction for the short term. As a matter of fact, it seems that there is somekind of a battle between large(r) traders.
The dip yesterday (look at 15min /es chart) was quickly bought. Non the less, those sharp drops are not bull friendly since the can easily lead to more selling and trend reversals. Ok, OpEx week so these kind of “manipulations” should be expected but still..
The bad news, money flow has been negative on SPY 60min chart and also negative volume flow (negative divergence with price). The good news is that the price is still holding. Also the action on UUP (US Dollar) is interesting. As a matter of fact, odds for a upturn on dollar is quite high and that would lead to a drop in the stockmarket.
The above SPX chart, keep an eye on those two levels. The green channel is my main scenario and the red (with a whip saw margin +1.5% ~1365/70) is the second scenario.
Another thing is that big boys seems to have gone fishing. Volatility on daily chart/s is decreasing, cumulative NYSE volume is close to give a trend reversal sign. Smoothed NYSE tick is not in favor of a longer term bull run, NYMO is above 0 but losing momentum. NYSI & NYAD are on my charts in bull territory at the moment.
Spain 10y bond 6.79%, Italy 6.03%, Portugal 10.62%.
Below a renko chart for them longer term traders
